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Portugal vs Norway prediction

Nations League · Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Portugal
VS
Norway
Portugal win
28%
Draw
30%
Norway win
42%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.6
Expected shots
13 – 13

Match analysis

Norway holds a real edge (42% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (31%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 27 September at 01:10 (UK time).

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