La Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 13:00 (UK time)
Rayo Vallecano
VS
Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano win
42%
Draw
30%
Athletic Club win
28%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.4
Expected shots
14 – 20
Match analysis
Rayo Vallecano holds a real edge (42% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 3 October at 01:10 (UK time).