Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 12:30 (UK time)
Arsenal
VS
Leeds
Arsenal win
65%
Draw
24%
Leeds win
11%
Expected goals
2.1 – 0.9
Expected shots
19 – 8
Match analysis
Arsenal comes out on top in most scenarios (65% win rate), but Leeds finds a way in 11% of simulations. Arsenal frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 49% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 3 October at 01:10 (UK time).