Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Poland
VS
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Poland win
56%
Draw
30%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
14%
Expected goals
1.6 – 0.7
Expected shots
13 – 11
Match analysis
Poland comes out on top in most scenarios (56% win rate), but Bosnia & Herzegovina finds a way in 14% of simulations. Poland frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 43% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 13:15 (UK time).