Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Hungary
VS
Ukraine
Hungary win
43%
Draw
33%
Ukraine win
24%
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.0
Expected shots
16 – 8
Match analysis
Hungary holds a real edge (43% vs 24%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (33%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 13:15 (UK time).