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Italy vs Belgium prediction

Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Italy
VS
Belgium
Italy win
44%
Draw
26%
Belgium win
30%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.7
Expected shots
15 – 16

Match analysis

Italy holds a real edge (44% vs 29%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (26%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 13:15 (UK time).

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