Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Italy
VS
Belgium
Italy win
44%
Draw
26%
Belgium win
30%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.7
Expected shots
15 – 16
Match analysis
Italy holds a real edge (44% vs 29%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (26%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 13:15 (UK time).