Serie A · Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Napoli
VS
Frosinone
Napoli win
45%
Draw
30%
Frosinone win
25%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.3
Expected shots
18 – 14
Match analysis
Napoli holds a real edge (45% vs 25%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 3 October at 01:11 (UK time).