Ligue 1 · Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Monaco
VS
Toulouse
Monaco win
60%
Draw
25%
Toulouse win
15%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.1
Expected shots
19 – 11
Match analysis
Monaco comes out on top in most scenarios (60% win rate), but Toulouse finds a way in 15% of simulations. Monaco frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 46% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 3 October at 01:11 (UK time).