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Monaco vs Lille prediction

Ligue 1 · Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)

Final score: Monaco 1 – 1 Lille

The model gave a draw only 30%. At 30%, an outcome happens about 30 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Monaco
VS
Lille
Monaco win
52%
Draw
30%
Lille win
18%
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.7
Expected shots
13 – 10

Match analysis

Monaco comes out on top in most scenarios (52% win rate), but Lille finds a way in 18% of simulations. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 50% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 October at 13:51 (UK time).

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