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Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction

Serie A · Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)

Final score: Atalanta 4 – 4 Frosinone

The model gave a draw only 28%. At 28%, an outcome happens about 28 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Atalanta
VS
Frosinone
Atalanta win
46%
Draw
28%
Frosinone win
26%
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.0
Expected shots
13 – 17

Match analysis

Atalanta holds a real edge (46% vs 26%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (28%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 October at 13:51 (UK time).

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