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Marseille vs Le Havre prediction

Ligue 1 · Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:15 (UK time)

Final score: Marseille 4 – 3 Le Havre

The outcome rated most likely (a Marseille win, 70%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Marseille
VS
Le Havre
Marseille win
70%
Draw
19%
Le Havre win
11%
Expected goals
2.4 – 0.9
Expected shots
23 – 13

Match analysis

Marseille dominates this matchup: 70% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 11% for Le Havre. Marseille frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 52% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 October at 15:21 (UK time).

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