Premier League · Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 16:30 (UK time)
Manchester United
VS
Aston Villa
Manchester United win
30%
Draw
28%
Aston Villa win
42%
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.4
Expected shots
14 – 16
Match analysis
Aston Villa holds a real edge (42% vs 30%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (28%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 1 November at 00:04 (UK time).