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Malaga vs Villarreal prediction

La Liga · Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 20:30 (UK time)

Final score: Malaga 1 – 3 Villarreal

The model gave a Villarreal win only 22%. At 22%, an outcome happens about 22 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Malaga
VS
Villarreal
Malaga win
53%
Draw
25%
Villarreal win
22%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.4
Expected shots
12 – 16

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 September at 19:36 (UK time).

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