Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Crystal Palace 4 – 0 Lech Poznan
The model gave a Crystal Palace win only 28%. At 28%, an outcome happens about 28 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Crystal Palace
VS
Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace win
28%
Draw
30%
Lech Poznan win
42%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.6
Expected shots
10 – 21
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 September at 19:06 (UK time).