Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Beşiktaş 4 – 1 Marseille
The outcome rated most likely (a Beşiktaş win, 69%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Beşiktaş
VS
Marseille
Beşiktaş win
69%
Draw
20%
Marseille win
11%
Expected goals
2.6 – 1.1
Expected shots
21 – 14
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 September at 19:06 (UK time).