Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Juventus 5 – 0 NEC Nijmegen
The outcome rated most likely (a Juventus win, 35%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Juventus
VS
NEC Nijmegen
Juventus win
35%
Draw
31%
NEC Nijmegen win
34%
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.4
Expected shots
19 – 11
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 17 September at 19:06 (UK time).