Nations League · Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Iceland
VS
Bulgaria
Iceland win
48%
Draw
32%
Bulgaria win
20%
Expected goals
1.5 – 0.9
Expected shots
12 – 6
Match analysis
Iceland holds a real edge (48% vs 20%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (32%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 26 September at 01:10 (UK time).