Nations League · Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
FYR Macedonia
VS
Scotland
FYR Macedonia win
25%
Draw
34%
Scotland win
41%
Expected goals
0.9 – 1.2
Expected shots
5 – 22
Match analysis
Scotland holds a real edge (41% vs 25%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (34%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 46% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 26 September at 01:10 (UK time).