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Finland vs Albania prediction

Nations League · Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)

Finland
VS
Albania
Finland win
43%
Draw
35%
Albania win
22%
Expected goals
1.2 – 0.8
Expected shots
9 – 13

Match analysis

Finland holds a real edge (43% vs 22%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (35%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 47% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 26 September at 01:10 (UK time).

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