Nations League · Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Croatia
VS
England
Croatia win
12%
Draw
22%
England win
66%
Expected goals
1.0 – 2.3
Expected shots
6 – 24
Match analysis
England dominates this matchup: 66% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 12% for Croatia. England frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 53% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 26 September at 01:10 (UK time).