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Croatia vs England prediction

Nations League · Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)

Croatia
VS
England
Croatia win
12%
Draw
22%
England win
66%
Expected goals
1.0 – 2.3
Expected shots
6 – 24

Match analysis

England dominates this matchup: 66% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 12% for Croatia. England frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 53% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 26 September at 01:10 (UK time).

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