Nations League · Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Estonia
VS
Luxembourg
Estonia win
43%
Draw
34%
Luxembourg win
23%
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.9
Expected shots
8 – 16
Match analysis
Estonia holds a real edge (43% vs 23%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (34%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 45% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 26 September at 01:10 (UK time).