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FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction

Bundesliga · Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 14:30 (UK time)

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 2 – 3 Werder Bremen

The model gave a Werder Bremen win only 23%. At 23%, an outcome happens about 23 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

FSV Mainz 05
VS
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05 win
58%
Draw
19%
Werder Bremen win
23%
Expected goals
2.8 – 1.8
Expected shots
21 – 13

Match analysis

FSV Mainz 05 comes out on top in most scenarios (58% win rate), but Werder Bremen finds a way in 23% of simulations. FSV Mainz 05 frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 47% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 October at 14:21 (UK time).

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