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Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction

Premier League · Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 12:30 (UK time)

Final score: Aston Villa 2 – 1 Manchester City

The model gave a Aston Villa win only 18%. At 18%, an outcome happens about 18 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Aston Villa
VS
Manchester City
Aston Villa win
18%
Draw
20%
Manchester City win
62%
Expected goals
1.3 – 2.5
Expected shots
9 – 22

Match analysis

Manchester City comes out on top in most scenarios (62% win rate), but Aston Villa finds a way in 18% of simulations. Manchester City frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 48% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 October at 11:51 (UK time).

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