The model gave a draw only 31%. At 31%, an outcome happens about 31 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
1. FC Köln
FC Schalke 04Genuinely open contest: 1. FC Köln and FC Schalke 04 finish within a few points of each other (35% vs 33%), with the draw at 31%. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 48% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 October at 14:21 (UK time).
Exact scores, scorers and detailed markets in the free app