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Cagliari vs Bologna prediction

Serie A · Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)

Final score: Cagliari 0 – 2 Bologna

The model gave a Bologna win only 29%. At 29%, an outcome happens about 29 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Cagliari
VS
Bologna
Cagliari win
40%
Draw
31%
Bologna win
29%
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.0
Expected shots
10 – 17

Match analysis

Cagliari holds a real edge (40% vs 29%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (31%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 48% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 24 October at 13:21 (UK time).

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