Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (UK time)
Chelsea
VS
Bournemouth
Chelsea win
64%
Draw
23%
Bournemouth win
13%
Expected goals
2.3 – 1.1
Expected shots
14 – 18
Match analysis
Chelsea comes out on top in most scenarios (64% win rate), but Bournemouth finds a way in 13% of simulations. Chelsea frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 51% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 3 October at 01:10 (UK time).