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Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction

La Liga · Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: Barcelona 1 – 2 Real Madrid

The model gave a Real Madrid win only 13%. At 13%, an outcome happens about 13 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Barcelona
VS
Real Madrid
Barcelona win
71%
Draw
16%
Real Madrid win
13%
Expected goals
3.0 – 1.3
Expected shots
18 – 9

Match analysis

Barcelona dominates this matchup: 71% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 13% for Real Madrid. Barcelona frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 55% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 25 October at 19:03 (UK time).

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