Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction

La Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 15:15 (UK time)

Alaves

VS

Atletico Madrid

Alaves win

25%

Draw

33%

Atletico Madrid win

42%

Match analysis

Atletico Madrid holds a real edge (42% vs 26%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (33%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 49% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 3 October at 01:11 (UK time).

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