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Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction

Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)

Final score: Sturm Graz 1 – 0 Marseille

The model gave a Sturm Graz win only 36%. At 36%, an outcome happens about 36 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Sturm Graz
VS
Marseille
Sturm Graz win
36%
Draw
27%
Marseille win
37%
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.5
Expected shots
11 – 17

Match analysis

Genuinely open contest: Sturm Graz and Marseille finish within a few points of each other (36% vs 37%), with the draw at 27%.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 17:12 (UK time).

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