The model gave a Annecy win only 28%. At 28%, an outcome happens about 28 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Sochaux
AnnecySochaux holds a real edge (41% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 48% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 23 October at 18:51 (UK time).
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