Premier League · Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Ipswich 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest
The model gave a draw only 23%. At 23%, an outcome happens about 23 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Ipswich
VS
Nottingham Forest
Ipswich win
33%
Draw
23%
Nottingham Forest win
44%
Expected goals
1.7 – 2.0
Expected shots
11 – 22
Match analysis
Nottingham Forest holds a real edge (45% vs 33%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (23%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 23 October at 19:21 (UK time).