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Pafos vs Riga prediction

Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)

Final score: Pafos 1 – 1 Riga

The model gave a draw only 31%. At 31%, an outcome happens about 31 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Pafos
VS
Riga
Pafos win
27%
Draw
31%
Riga win
42%
Expected goals
1.0 – 1.3
Expected shots
13 – 11

Match analysis

Riga holds a real edge (42% vs 27%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (31%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 48% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 17:12 (UK time).

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