Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 2 – 1 Jagiellonia
The outcome rated most likely (a Olympiakos Piraeus win, 50%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Olympiakos Piraeus
VS
Jagiellonia
Olympiakos Piraeus win
50%
Draw
26%
Jagiellonia win
24%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.5
Expected shots
25 – 12
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 16 September at 19:06 (UK time).