La Liga · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 18:00 (UK time)
Final score: Atletico Madrid 4 – 0 Osasuna
The model gave a Atletico Madrid win only 29%. At 29%, an outcome happens about 29 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Atletico Madrid
VS
Osasuna
Atletico Madrid win
29%
Draw
30%
Osasuna win
41%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.6
Expected shots
12 – 12
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 16 September at 17:09 (UK time).