Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: AC Milan 0 – 2 Benfica
The outcome rated most likely (a Benfica win, 50%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
AC Milan
VS
Benfica
AC Milan win
25%
Draw
25%
Benfica win
50%
Expected goals
1.6 – 2.3
Expected shots
12 – 22
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 16 September at 19:06 (UK time).