Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Monaco 3 – 0 SC Freiburg
The model gave a Monaco win only 31%. At 31%, an outcome happens about 31 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Monaco
VS
SC Freiburg
Monaco win
31%
Draw
27%
SC Freiburg win
42%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.5
Expected shots
8 – 16
Match analysis
SC Freiburg holds a real edge (42% vs 31%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (27%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 19:12 (UK time).