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Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction

Nations League · Friday, 13 November 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Luxembourg
VS
Estonia
Luxembourg win
23%
Draw
36%
Estonia win
41%
Expected goals
0.6 – 1.0
Expected shots
12 – 15

Match analysis

Estonia holds a real edge (41% vs 23%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (36%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 56% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 November at 10:54 (UK time).

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