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Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction

Nations League · Friday, 13 November 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Bulgaria
VS
Iceland
Bulgaria win
14%
Draw
23%
Iceland win
63%
Expected goals
0.7 – 1.8
Expected shots
7 – 15

Match analysis

Iceland comes out on top in most scenarios (63% win rate), but Bulgaria finds a way in 14% of simulations. Iceland frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 45% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 November at 10:54 (UK time).

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