Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Lincoln Red Imps FC 1 – 4 Twente
The outcome rated most likely (a Twente win, 62%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
VS
Twente
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
15%
Draw
23%
Twente win
62%
Expected goals
0.8 – 1.9
Expected shots
4 – 25
Match analysis
Twente comes out on top in most scenarios (62% win rate), but Lincoln Red Imps FC finds a way in 16% of simulations. Twente frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 45% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 19:12 (UK time).