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FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction

Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: FC Thun 0 – 1 HNK Hajduk Split

The outcome rated most likely (a HNK Hajduk Split win, 58%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

FC Thun
VS
HNK Hajduk Split
FC Thun win
20%
Draw
22%
HNK Hajduk Split win
58%
Expected goals
1.2 – 2.1
Expected shots
7 – 25

Match analysis

HNK Hajduk Split comes out on top in most scenarios (58% win rate), but FC Thun finds a way in 19% of simulations. HNK Hajduk Split frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 44% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 19:12 (UK time).

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