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England vs Croatia prediction

Nations League · Thursday, 12 November 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

England
VS
Croatia
England win
75%
Draw
14%
Croatia win
11%
Expected goals
3.3 – 1.3
Expected shots
19 – 9

Match analysis

England dominates this matchup: 75% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 11% for Croatia. England frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 59% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 November at 05:54 (UK time).

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