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Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction

Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: Celje 2 – 2 Red Bull Salzburg

The model gave a draw only 30%. At 30%, an outcome happens about 30 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Celje
VS
Red Bull Salzburg
Celje win
28%
Draw
30%
Red Bull Salzburg win
42%
Expected goals
1.0 – 1.3
Expected shots
12 – 21

Match analysis

Red Bull Salzburg holds a real edge (42% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (30%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 47% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 19:11 (UK time).

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