Bundesliga · Friday, 9 October 2026 at 19:30 (UK time)
Borussia Dortmund
VS
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund win
79%
Draw
15%
Werder Bremen win
6%
Expected goals
2.8 – 0.8
Expected shots
24 – 7
Match analysis
Borussia Dortmund dominates this matchup: 79% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 6% for Werder Bremen. Borussia Dortmund frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 64% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 2 October at 14:10 (UK time).