Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Beşiktaş 2 – 2 Crystal Palace
The model gave a draw only 22%. At 22%, an outcome happens about 22 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Beşiktaş
VS
Crystal Palace
Beşiktaş win
41%
Draw
22%
Crystal Palace win
37%
Expected goals
2.1 – 2.0
Expected shots
12 – 16
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace finish within a few points of each other (41% vs 37%), with the draw at 22%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 19:11 (UK time).