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Alaves vs Malaga prediction

La Liga · Friday, 23 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: Alaves 1 – 1 Malaga

The model gave a draw only 27%. At 27%, an outcome happens about 27 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Alaves
VS
Malaga
Alaves win
61%
Draw
27%
Malaga win
12%
Expected goals
1.6 – 0.6
Expected shots
14 – 14

Match analysis

Alaves comes out on top in most scenarios (61% win rate), but Malaga finds a way in 13% of simulations. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 46% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 23 October at 19:21 (UK time).

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