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Ajax vs Atalanta prediction

Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: Ajax 2 – 0 Atalanta

The model gave a Ajax win only 32%. At 32%, an outcome happens about 32 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Ajax
VS
Atalanta
Ajax win
32%
Draw
25%
Atalanta win
43%
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.7
Expected shots
14 – 14

Match analysis

Atalanta holds a real edge (43% vs 32%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (25%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 22 October at 19:12 (UK time).

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