Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 17:30 (UK time)
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
The outcome rated most likely (a Borussia Dortmund win, 41%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
VfB Stuttgart
VS
Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart win
34%
Draw
25%
Borussia Dortmund win
41%
Expected goals
2.0 – 2.2
Expected shots
17 – 19
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 16:53 (UK time).