Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 14:30 (UK time)
Final score: Hamburger SV 2 – 1 1. FC Köln
The model gave a Hamburger SV win only 17%. At 17%, an outcome happens about 17 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Hamburger SV
VS
1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV win
17%
Draw
23%
1. FC Köln win
60%
Expected goals
1.4 – 2.4
Expected shots
12 – 17
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 13:53 (UK time).