La Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 13:00 (UK time)
Final score: Osasuna 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
The model gave a draw only 31%. At 31%, an outcome happens about 31 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Osasuna
VS
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna win
29%
Draw
31%
Rayo Vallecano win
40%
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.5
Expected shots
9 – 13
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 12:23 (UK time).