Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Final score: Toulouse 3 – 2 Le Havre
The outcome rated most likely (a Toulouse win, 66%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Toulouse
VS
Le Havre
Toulouse win
66%
Draw
24%
Le Havre win
10%
Expected goals
2.0 – 0.8
Expected shots
15 – 16
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 18:54 (UK time).